The Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy

The Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy at Arizona State University aims to foster and support thoughtful, innovative research, policy briefs and forums around the state of American Democracy. The two-fold focus is on exploring nonpartisan reforms and redesigns of federal, state and local governance of electoral structures, and a deep dive examination of the independent voter.

Presenters:

Dan Hunting

Thom Reilly

Jacqueline Salit

Cathy Stewart

David Belmont

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Study Highlights:

• Self-identified independents accounted for 34% of voters in 2024, more than the 31% of voters who said they were Democrats, and just slightly below the 35% of voters who said they were Republicans. In 2020, independents cast just 26% of the ballots nationwide.

• Nationally, independents broke 49% for Kamala Harris and 46% for Donald Trump, with 5% voting for one of the other presidential candidates. In many battleground states, however, it was a different picture. Trump won independents in Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Independents broke evenly in Nevada. Harris won independent voters in Michigan by 4 percentage points and in Wisconsin by 1 percentage point. This outcome differed from 2020, when Biden won independents nationally by 13 points.

   

• Those who identify as independents are both younger and more likely to be male than those who are party affiliated. Independents also have a larger share of their voters in the 30-44 age group (27%) than Democrats (23%) or Republicans (20%). Although the age 18-29 voting bloc was just 14 percent of the electorate in 2024, independents outnumber the party-affiliated in this growing group at 38 percent of the total. Independents comprise 32 percent of all voters aged 30 and above.

• Independents were more likely to identify themselves as political moderates than self-identified members of the two major parties. Not surprisingly, most Democrats identify as liberal, and most Republicans say they are conservative.

•  Moderate independents represented 18 percent of the total voting electorate; the second largest group behind conservative Republicans  (23 percent) and outnumbering liberal Democrats. These independents show a slight preference for Democrats, with 49% of moderate independents voting a straight Democratic ticket and 34% straight Republican, but self-identified partisans are firmly in one camp or the other.

• When independents were asked about their top criteria for picking a presidential candidate to support, 41% of them said democracy was most important, and 31% said the economy. Just 11% said abortion was their top issue of concern, though 69% of independents believe abortion should be legal.

• Independents trusted Trump more on crime, safety, and immigration. They trusted Harris more on abortion rights and split equally on whom they trusted more on the economy.

• Independents who voted for Harris were less enthused about her and more interested in voting against Trump.

• Independents were twice as likely as Republicans and Democrats to split their tickets between their presidential and Senate votes, with 10% of independents doing so nationwide.

• In the five swing states that had Senate races in 2024 (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) ticket splitting among independent voters ranged from 7 percent in Wisconsin to 14 percent in Nevada, but in all states, independents were considerably more likely to split their tickets than either Democrats or Republicans.

[1] The number of “interviews” conducted in the state-based polling:
AZ – 1876, GA – 4406, MI – 2863, NV – 3514, NC – 3784, PA – 3004, WI – 2961