My dissertation develops a framework for the analysis of local government fiscal sustainability that is focused on the assessment of local capital stock, fiscal capacity, pension liability management, and service adequacy. Using data from Californian city government Comprehensive Audited Financial Reports, U.S. Bureau of the Census, and the California Debt and Investment Advisory Commission, I construct a composite index of fiscal sustainability that reflects a government’s ability to withstand unfavorable economic and demographic changes without compromising service provision and intergenerational equity.
The study combines deterministic statistical methods with exploratory data analysis to quantify the relationships between fiscal sustainability and revenue diversity, expenditure pressures, debt management as well as intergovernmental relationships and local institutional factors. The analysis of local fiscal sustainability includes an assessment of local capital assets owned and managed through both governmental and business-type activities. This focus is important as local expenditures include a larger percentage of capital public goods (e.g. buildings, streets, parks) compared to the federal and state expenditures that are more monetary in nature (e.g. SSI, Medicaid). On the basis of the estimated statistical relationships, I generate micro-simulations of sustainability for a set of municipalities under explicit assumptions about future changes in their demography and economy. Whereas governments can take several paths on the road of fiscal sustainability, some patterns of institutional arrangements and resource management are more dominant than others. My dissertation identifies and investigates these patterns among Californian local governments using high-quality financial and accounting data for 2003- 2007.
- Dissertation Committee: Jeffrey I. Chapman, Chris. M. Herbst, Gerald J. Miller
- Hometown: Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
- Undergraduate: Bachelor of Arts, Nizhny Novgorod State Linguistic University
- Graduate:Master of Arts in Foreign Language Translation (English and French), Nizhny Novgorod State Linguistic University
- Email: email@example.com
- Anticipated Graduation: 2013
- Research Interests: Public finance, public economics, urban economic development, quantitative methodology, welfare policy analysis, migration and demographic change, student motivation and self-regulated learning.
- Personal Interests: reading, writing, drawing, photography.